It Wouldn't Matter if He Used a Diebold Machine

The First Holy Caucus

It's increasingly likely that the Republican presidential nominee will be John McCain, who is also the Republican most likely to win the November election.

Senator McCain has unusual appeal among swing voters, and polls show him running stunningly well in general election matchups—even in a year that one might expect would be a Democratic romp. So that raises the obvious question: Who would be the stronger Democratic candidate?

The answer isn't certain, partly because Barack Obama's shine could quickly tarnish. In July 1988, Michael Dukakis was hailed as a Democratic hero with a 17-percentage-point lead over George H.W. Bush; four months later, he was a loser.

But one clue emerged in Tuesday's balloting in 14 “red states” that were won by President George W. Bush in 2004. Mr. Obama won nine while Hillary Rodham Clinton won four and is ahead in the fifth.

“Obama would appeal much more to Republican voters,” said Susan Eisenhower, a lifelong Republican and granddaughter of the late president. “Not all Republican voters, but certainly those who might be somewhat in play.”

When pollsters offer voters hypothetical matchups, Mr. Obama does better than Mrs. Clinton against Mr. McCain. …

Mr. Obama also has the highest approval rating of any major candidate among independents, 62 percent, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll. He also has unusually low negatives, which gives him upside potential.

Mr. Obama does surprisingly well among evangelical Christians, an important constituency in swing states. For example, Relevant magazine, which caters to young evangelicals, asked its readers: “Who would Jesus vote for?”

See? I told you those fuckers were crazy.